This is a very interesting race and a chance to make real money. The following represents my observations and thoughts. It is important you learn to rely on yourself when the final decision is made.
First, the race is 9 furlongs. My research indicates the further the race the more important early speed becomes. Take a look at MOM1A. It is mostly red. That gives Horses #1 and #6 a distinct advantage as a starting point. Those two appear to have an early advantage. Now look at the E column. All of the horses except Horses #5 and #7 have either green or yellow for E. That means the race is composed of mostly early or presser type horses. All of the horses that are early or presser based on E and have red MOM1A are at a distinct disadvantage. That does not mean they cannot win. It means they are at a disadvantage they have to make up somewhere else.
MOM2A is mostly red. MOM3A has some yellow. With MOM2A mostly red it is hard to see how any horse will make up for the early disadvantage. Horses #5 and #9 have yellow MOM2A so they pick up a little. Will it be enough to win? Will the early leaders collapse because they have red MOM2A?
Five horses have yellow MOM3A. That generally means the only way one of them can win is if the early horses collapse. Will that happen?
What about Horse #8 which most likely will be the heavy favorite? Is the horse vulnerable? Optimal Odds and RSR say Horse #8 is the likely winner. C1 is a hair weak with yellow. C2 is good with green. A clear possible weakness is Horse #8 does not have green MT. Considering it looks like Horse #8 has to do something during the second third and final third of the race the lack of green for MT is damaging. I do not see Horse #8 as a 3/5 shot. Horse #8 will definitely NOT be worth a bet in the Belmont.
Something else worth noting is the MM column. Only Horse #6 has a single M. The rest of the column is blank. That means the horses are not likely to do much passing of other horses in any meaningful way during the race. The only way there will be passing is if earlier horses collapse. Horse #6 will either go wire to wire or collapse.
In conclusion, in my opinion speed has an advantage in this race for the various reasons cited. A presser or closer can only win with somewhat substantial collapse of the few speed horses. Start with Optimal Odds and go from there!
First, the race is 9 furlongs. My research indicates the further the race the more important early speed becomes. Take a look at MOM1A. It is mostly red. That gives Horses #1 and #6 a distinct advantage as a starting point. Those two appear to have an early advantage. Now look at the E column. All of the horses except Horses #5 and #7 have either green or yellow for E. That means the race is composed of mostly early or presser type horses. All of the horses that are early or presser based on E and have red MOM1A are at a distinct disadvantage. That does not mean they cannot win. It means they are at a disadvantage they have to make up somewhere else.
MOM2A is mostly red. MOM3A has some yellow. With MOM2A mostly red it is hard to see how any horse will make up for the early disadvantage. Horses #5 and #9 have yellow MOM2A so they pick up a little. Will it be enough to win? Will the early leaders collapse because they have red MOM2A?
Five horses have yellow MOM3A. That generally means the only way one of them can win is if the early horses collapse. Will that happen?
What about Horse #8 which most likely will be the heavy favorite? Is the horse vulnerable? Optimal Odds and RSR say Horse #8 is the likely winner. C1 is a hair weak with yellow. C2 is good with green. A clear possible weakness is Horse #8 does not have green MT. Considering it looks like Horse #8 has to do something during the second third and final third of the race the lack of green for MT is damaging. I do not see Horse #8 as a 3/5 shot. Horse #8 will definitely NOT be worth a bet in the Belmont.
Something else worth noting is the MM column. Only Horse #6 has a single M. The rest of the column is blank. That means the horses are not likely to do much passing of other horses in any meaningful way during the race. The only way there will be passing is if earlier horses collapse. Horse #6 will either go wire to wire or collapse.
In conclusion, in my opinion speed has an advantage in this race for the various reasons cited. A presser or closer can only win with somewhat substantial collapse of the few speed horses. Start with Optimal Odds and go from there!
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