How To Make A Profit

[gplevin]

Making a profit is quite simple and quite difficult. I know that sounds confusing, but let me explain.

Making a profit is really all about getting value for your betting dollar. Optimal Odds is truly your best friend. If you ONLY make bets on horses with actual post time odds at least DOUBLE Optimal Odds AND at least 5/1 actual post time odds it is almost impossible to lose long term. If you do the Element of Ruin calculations then your probability of doubling your bankroll is 99% and your chances of losing your bankroll is 1%.

The trouble is mostly psychology. Specifically, the problem is mostly your psychology. Let that sink in for a moment. You are your own worst enemy.

You are your own worst enemy on two counts. First, you want excitement and to get rich quick. It just does not work that way. I am telling you how to win long term betting horses. It really works. The trouble is mostly that it is boring. You will not get rich quickly. You can get rich, but it takes patience and planning. You MUST use a bankroll. You MUST flat bet. When you double your bankroll then go to the next level and not one second before. I know it is boring. I never promised you excitement. I only promised you a path to profit.

You are your own worst enemy because you want to handicap. The only thing you have ever learned about betting horses is you must handicap well in order to win. All of the experts on tv and in the papers and on the Internet talk about handicapping and which horse will beat which other horse and why. They are all wrong. They really do not understand the actual nature of betting on horses. Betting on horses is gambling. There is definitely no sure thing. Do you remember a horse named Onion when it beat Secretariat? Impossible!! True!! If you approach betting on horses as gambling and use Optimal Odds then you can win MONEY long term.

 

[gplevin]

Here is a tip - wait for real opportunities!

Today is July 6, 2020 and the 6th race at Los Alamitos was a real opportunity. I have attached the sheet so you can see. Horse #4 had Optimal Odds of 1.6, but had actual post time odds of 16/1 in a 5 horse field. If you look at the sheets you can see Horse #4 was really worth a bullet, especially when it was paying ten times fair value.

You don't really need excitement. You need opportunities like this one at Los Alamitos!

 

[maiom01]

Making a profit is quite simple and quite difficult. I know that sounds confusing, but let me explain.

Making a profit is really all about getting value for your betting dollar. Optimal Odds is truly your best friend. If you ONLY make bets on horses with actual post time odds at least DOUBLE Optimal Odds AND at least 5/1 actual post time odds it is almost impossible to lose long term. If you do the Element of Ruin calculations then your probability of doubling your bankroll is 99% and your chances of losing your bankroll is 1%.

The trouble is mostly psychology. Specifically, the problem is mostly your psychology. Let that sink in for a moment. You are your own worst enemy.

You are your own worst enemy on two counts. First, you want excitement and to get rich quick. It just does not work that way. I am telling you how to win long term betting horses. It really works. The trouble is mostly that it is boring. You will not get rich quickly. You can get rich, but it takes patience and planning. You MUST use a bankroll. You MUST flat bet. When you double your bankroll then go to the next level and not one second before. I know it is boring. I never promised you excitement. I only promised you a path to profit.

You are your own worst enemy because you want to handicap. The only thing you have ever learned about betting horses is you must handicap well in order to win. All of the experts on tv and in the papers and on the Internet talk about handicapping and which horse will beat which other horse and why. They are all wrong. They really do not understand the actual nature of betting on horses. Betting on horses is gambling. There is definitely no sure thing. Do you remember a horse named Onion when it beat Secretariat? Impossible!! True!! If you approach betting on horses as gambling and use Optimal Odds then you can win MONEY long term.

good read. Sounds like someone I know.

 

[gplevin]

good read. Sounds like someone I know.

Winning whether by betting horses or counting cards is very similar. First and most importantly it absolutely is possible to win long term at either one.

Here is the rest of the story as Paul Harvey would say. I always say long term. Why? It is not possible to win in the short term. No, I am not crazy or speaking in some sort of double speak. Gambling is a long term project. For example, casinos are in it for the long haul. Someone may walk in tomorrow at the casino and win $10 million dollars. When that happens the casino has a losing day. The casino actually loves the big winner because the casino knows for 100% certainty that they will win their money in the long term. One year from now the casino will have recovered its $10 million one day loss many times over. The casino does not care when they have a losing day. It is great publicity.

The casino illustration shows why I say it is not possible to win in the short term. The casino starts a new day at midnight. If the lucky player comes in and wins big it is just a fluctuation that happens regularly when you gamble. It is gambling in the short term because there is daily fluctuations in whether the casino wins or loses and how much. It is really not gambling in the long term because the casino knows next year at this time it will win its money at very close to the exact amount predicted by the expected value equation. It really is that simple.

Betting on horses is exactly the same. When you start betting every day you never know if you will score big or have a terrible run of close seconds. On any given day you may win or you may lose and Winnermetrics does not have control over the outcome on any given day. Winnermetrics does have control over the outcome next year at this time. The expected value equation controls where your finances will be next year at this time. If you use the expected value equation and Winnermetrics algorithms faithfully then you will almost certainly be substantially profitable next year at this time. Your personal outcome depends on your faithful application of the expected value equation and the Winnermetrics algorithms with every single bet you make.

Any day you have a great day or a bad day is just a day. You will have an offsetting day the other way. One year from today your profit or loss will depend 100% on how well you apply the expected value equation. If you faithfully apply the expected value equation and the Winnermetrics algorithms without exception then you will be have financial results exactly as predicted by the expected value equation. There is absolutely no escaping the mathematics of the expected value equation.

You may think the expected value equation does not exist or does not apply to betting horses. You are welcome to think whatever you like, but do so at your own peril.