There is one and only one way to win betting horses. You must control one component of the expected value equation.
What I am about to explain is 100% fact. I encourage you to ask any expert you might know or do any advanced research you can muster in any effort to prove I am wrong. I am 100% certain I am correct. Why? I have a fabulous education. I was the nerd who loved statistics and probability theory. I was an adjunct professor in the mathematics department. I was a world class card counter. I have been accepted in the Superior Court of New Jersey as an expert in the mathematics of gambling. I worked for a casino for over five years putting my mathematical skills to use. I think all of that gives you a good reason to consider what I am telling you.
The expected value equation comes in many forms for many different subject areas. I have simplified the equation for betting on horses. The expected value equation is E = (probability of winning * amount won) - (probability of losing * amount lost). Think about casinos or any other form of gambling. The house sets the rules. Why? The house must set the rules so they can control all of the components of the expected value equation. As long as the house controls every component of the expected value equation then the house cannot lose long term. Players must get lucky every once in awhile or they would not play. However, over millions of bets the house will always win. That is the law of mathematics.
Let's take the discussion to the next level.
Professor Edward O. Thorp at MIT did the first known in depth study of Blackjack. Professor Thorp determined that when the remaining cards to be played had a disproportionate number of 10 valued cards then the player had an advantage. In other words, Professor Thorp determined that the expected value for the player became a positive number under certain conditions. Anyone who became skilled and bet under the correct conditions could win long term betting Blackjack. The casinos around the world panicked after Beat The Dealer was first published in 1962. Many casinos changed the rules for a brief period, but soon realized most people did not have the skill or patience to implement the work of Professor Thorp.
That is the problem here. Most people reading this will not have the patience required to make a long term profit. The good news is Winnermetrics takes less skill than card counting. If you are still interested let me explain that Professor Thorp found a way to control a component of the expected value equation. When you count cards you are actually controlling the probability of winning. If you are one of the chosen few who can develop the skill to count cards and the patience to apply your skill then it is almost impossible to lose long term playing blackjack.
I have developed a series of algorithms that predict the probability of winning for every horse in every race with very few exceptions. The algorithms are 70% accurate with very low standard deviation. With the knowledge provided by the algorithms you control an element of the expected value equation. You control the probability of winning. Your ability to know the probability of winning gives you the ability to make a profit long term betting horses.
There is good news, especially if this all sounds like Greek to you. The algorithms do all of the work for you. Winnermetrics does all of the work for you. Here is how you apply the algorithms. Only bet a horse when its actual post time odds are at least double the probability of the horse winning. The probability of winning is called Optimal Odds in Winnermetrics. So, if you just bet horses with actual post time odds that are at least double Optimal Odds you have about a 99% chance of doubling your bankroll before losing your bankroll if you bet 1% of your bankroll on each bet.
Here are my warnings to you. It takes a patient type of personality to implement Winnermetrics. You will lose most of the bets you make. Winnermetrics does not pick winners. Winnermetrics is designed to make a profit long term - nothing more and nothing less. Most people give up because they lose a lot of races. A lot of people give up because it is boring. I promise you following Winnermetrics is quite boring and you will have a lot of losers. However, I capped off this past weekend with a 99/1 winner at Monmouth on July 5. When I saw the payoff was $216.00 that was exciting. July 4 I hit a 70/1 winner also at Monmouth. That is the kind of excitement I love.
Take everything written here to heart. Even if you do not use Winnermetrics you can still use the concept if you can find a reliable predictor of probability of winning. I know Winnermetrics is far and away the best on the planet!
What I am about to explain is 100% fact. I encourage you to ask any expert you might know or do any advanced research you can muster in any effort to prove I am wrong. I am 100% certain I am correct. Why? I have a fabulous education. I was the nerd who loved statistics and probability theory. I was an adjunct professor in the mathematics department. I was a world class card counter. I have been accepted in the Superior Court of New Jersey as an expert in the mathematics of gambling. I worked for a casino for over five years putting my mathematical skills to use. I think all of that gives you a good reason to consider what I am telling you.
The expected value equation comes in many forms for many different subject areas. I have simplified the equation for betting on horses. The expected value equation is E = (probability of winning * amount won) - (probability of losing * amount lost). Think about casinos or any other form of gambling. The house sets the rules. Why? The house must set the rules so they can control all of the components of the expected value equation. As long as the house controls every component of the expected value equation then the house cannot lose long term. Players must get lucky every once in awhile or they would not play. However, over millions of bets the house will always win. That is the law of mathematics.
Let's take the discussion to the next level.
Professor Edward O. Thorp at MIT did the first known in depth study of Blackjack. Professor Thorp determined that when the remaining cards to be played had a disproportionate number of 10 valued cards then the player had an advantage. In other words, Professor Thorp determined that the expected value for the player became a positive number under certain conditions. Anyone who became skilled and bet under the correct conditions could win long term betting Blackjack. The casinos around the world panicked after Beat The Dealer was first published in 1962. Many casinos changed the rules for a brief period, but soon realized most people did not have the skill or patience to implement the work of Professor Thorp.
That is the problem here. Most people reading this will not have the patience required to make a long term profit. The good news is Winnermetrics takes less skill than card counting. If you are still interested let me explain that Professor Thorp found a way to control a component of the expected value equation. When you count cards you are actually controlling the probability of winning. If you are one of the chosen few who can develop the skill to count cards and the patience to apply your skill then it is almost impossible to lose long term playing blackjack.
I have developed a series of algorithms that predict the probability of winning for every horse in every race with very few exceptions. The algorithms are 70% accurate with very low standard deviation. With the knowledge provided by the algorithms you control an element of the expected value equation. You control the probability of winning. Your ability to know the probability of winning gives you the ability to make a profit long term betting horses.
There is good news, especially if this all sounds like Greek to you. The algorithms do all of the work for you. Winnermetrics does all of the work for you. Here is how you apply the algorithms. Only bet a horse when its actual post time odds are at least double the probability of the horse winning. The probability of winning is called Optimal Odds in Winnermetrics. So, if you just bet horses with actual post time odds that are at least double Optimal Odds you have about a 99% chance of doubling your bankroll before losing your bankroll if you bet 1% of your bankroll on each bet.
Here are my warnings to you. It takes a patient type of personality to implement Winnermetrics. You will lose most of the bets you make. Winnermetrics does not pick winners. Winnermetrics is designed to make a profit long term - nothing more and nothing less. Most people give up because they lose a lot of races. A lot of people give up because it is boring. I promise you following Winnermetrics is quite boring and you will have a lot of losers. However, I capped off this past weekend with a 99/1 winner at Monmouth on July 5. When I saw the payoff was $216.00 that was exciting. July 4 I hit a 70/1 winner also at Monmouth. That is the kind of excitement I love.
Take everything written here to heart. Even if you do not use Winnermetrics you can still use the concept if you can find a reliable predictor of probability of winning. I know Winnermetrics is far and away the best on the planet!
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