You will notice in some races that there are several horses with Optimal Odds below 1. That means the total of all probabilities in the race is well over 100%. The total of all probabilities can go over 200% or even 300%. I know you are sitting there wondering how is that possible. If you paid any attention in math class you vaguely remember that the total of all probabilities in any given situation is 100%. I have to admit that is true. Everywhere except in the world of Winnermetrics!
I guess I better explain!
I believe that there is a fundamental misunderstanding of what betting on horses is all about. Most bettors think the path to profit is based on picking winners. They spend long periods of time comparing one horse to the other. They compare all of the horses in the race to the other horses in the race. In that world the total of all probabilities are 100%. Unfortunately, it is not possible to win money long term in that world.
We need to live in a different world. Winnermetrics exists in a different world. You are welcome to come to the world of Winnermetrics!
Here is the problem. Horses are living animals. They may not be feeling entirely well. Even worse, trainers control horses. Trainers move horses to different surfaces, different distances, different class levels, different tracks, etc. Good luck comparing one horse to another with all of those changes. There has to be a better way. There is a better way!
I compare every horse in the race to thousands of other similarly situated horses in situations like the horses face today. Imagine a race of ten thousand horses where all the horses are pretty similar and all of the sample races are similar to what the horses face today. The horses race each other numerous times. Some horses will do very well most of the races. Some horses will be well back most of the races. Most horses will be somewhere in the middle most of the time. You may think of the finish distribution as a normal curve. In effect, Winnermetrics assigns probability of winning today based on all of those races against thousands of similar horses. The horses that did well most of the time in the sample races have a much higher probability of winning today when compared to horses that ran in the middle or the back most of the time. Horses that did very well in most of the races will receive an Optimal Odds score of less than 1. When a horse has an Optimal Odds of 1 that means the horse has about a 50% chance of winning the race today.
When a horse has Optimal Odds of 50/1 that means the horse will win the race only about once for every fifty times it runs today's race. If the Optimal Odds on a horse are 15/1 and the actual post time odds are 5/1 what do you think will happen if you bet the horse? You will go broke if you keep betting it. Conversely, if Optimal Odds are 5/1 and the actual post time odds are 15/1 what do you think will happen if you bet the horse? You will get rich if you keep betting it.
Here is where the strange situation comes into play. What if a few or several horses in the race ran very well most of the time in the thousands of sample races. They would all deserve an Optimal Odds score below 1. They earned it. It does not matter what other horse is in the field today. Every horse earns its Optimal Odds score from running numerous sample races against thousands of similar horses.
The result is several horses in one race can have Optimal Odds of 1 or less. Therefore, the total of probabilities of all horses is well over 100% to all of the people living outside the Winnermetrics world. It all makes perfect sense to people living in the world of Winnermetrics.
How do you play a race where there are several horses with OO below 1. First, having so many horses with OO below 1 means there are several very competitive horses in the race. The best approach is to bet horses with really good premiums and with actual post time odds of at least 5/1.
I hope you decide to join the world of Winnermetrics. It is different, but profitable.
I guess I better explain!
I believe that there is a fundamental misunderstanding of what betting on horses is all about. Most bettors think the path to profit is based on picking winners. They spend long periods of time comparing one horse to the other. They compare all of the horses in the race to the other horses in the race. In that world the total of all probabilities are 100%. Unfortunately, it is not possible to win money long term in that world.
We need to live in a different world. Winnermetrics exists in a different world. You are welcome to come to the world of Winnermetrics!
Here is the problem. Horses are living animals. They may not be feeling entirely well. Even worse, trainers control horses. Trainers move horses to different surfaces, different distances, different class levels, different tracks, etc. Good luck comparing one horse to another with all of those changes. There has to be a better way. There is a better way!
I compare every horse in the race to thousands of other similarly situated horses in situations like the horses face today. Imagine a race of ten thousand horses where all the horses are pretty similar and all of the sample races are similar to what the horses face today. The horses race each other numerous times. Some horses will do very well most of the races. Some horses will be well back most of the races. Most horses will be somewhere in the middle most of the time. You may think of the finish distribution as a normal curve. In effect, Winnermetrics assigns probability of winning today based on all of those races against thousands of similar horses. The horses that did well most of the time in the sample races have a much higher probability of winning today when compared to horses that ran in the middle or the back most of the time. Horses that did very well in most of the races will receive an Optimal Odds score of less than 1. When a horse has an Optimal Odds of 1 that means the horse has about a 50% chance of winning the race today.
When a horse has Optimal Odds of 50/1 that means the horse will win the race only about once for every fifty times it runs today's race. If the Optimal Odds on a horse are 15/1 and the actual post time odds are 5/1 what do you think will happen if you bet the horse? You will go broke if you keep betting it. Conversely, if Optimal Odds are 5/1 and the actual post time odds are 15/1 what do you think will happen if you bet the horse? You will get rich if you keep betting it.
Here is where the strange situation comes into play. What if a few or several horses in the race ran very well most of the time in the thousands of sample races. They would all deserve an Optimal Odds score below 1. They earned it. It does not matter what other horse is in the field today. Every horse earns its Optimal Odds score from running numerous sample races against thousands of similar horses.
The result is several horses in one race can have Optimal Odds of 1 or less. Therefore, the total of probabilities of all horses is well over 100% to all of the people living outside the Winnermetrics world. It all makes perfect sense to people living in the world of Winnermetrics.
How do you play a race where there are several horses with OO below 1. First, having so many horses with OO below 1 means there are several very competitive horses in the race. The best approach is to bet horses with really good premiums and with actual post time odds of at least 5/1.
I hope you decide to join the world of Winnermetrics. It is different, but profitable.